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With the European Commission confirming that methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) is not a health hazard, it has regained confidence as an important octane booster in clean gasoline. Previously classified as a possible carcinogen by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, MTBE is now seen as a safe and effective additive, especially as the demand for cleaner fuels continues to rise.
As China's refining and ethylene industries expand, the availability of carbon 4 resources is increasing. This allows for higher purity isobutylene to be extracted from MTBE cracking, which is then used in the production of advanced materials like butyl rubber, methacrylic acid (MMA), and polyisobutylene. These products are high-tech, high-value, and have strong market potential. Additionally, other refined chemical products such as methyl esters and polyisobutylene are also gaining traction in the market.
The demand for clean gasoline has been growing since 2005 when China implemented stricter standards for motor vehicle gasoline. These standards limit olefin, aromatic hydrocarbon, and sulfur content, while capping oxygen content at 2.7%. As a result, gasoline's octane number has dropped, making MTBE an essential component for maintaining fuel performance. With these requirements in place, MTBE will continue to play a vital role in balancing octane levels and environmental compliance.
Historical data shows a steady increase in MTBE usage. In 1990, MTBE was added at 0.4%, mostly in leaded gasoline. By 2006, with improved oil quality, MTBE’s average addition rose to 2.59%, reflecting its growing importance. This trend indicates that as China continues to upgrade its fuel standards, MTBE consumption will likely keep rising.
In 2007, China produced about 1.7 million tons of MTBE. By 2010, gasoline production is expected to reach 64.2 million tons, with ethanol gasoline accounting for around 20 million tons. Based on this, MTBE demand could reach 2 million tons in 2010, assuming a 4.5% addition rate. However, factors like slower gasoline growth, the adoption of methanol gasoline, and government policies may influence future demand.
Despite these uncertainties, the overall demand for MTBE in China is expected to grow steadily due to rapid industrial development, stricter emission standards, and increased imports of high-sulfur crude oil. However, the rise of alternative fuels and advancements in catalytic reforming and etherification technologies—especially ethanol and methanol gasoline—may slow the growth of MTBE in fuel applications.
On the chemical side, MTBE’s role as a raw material is set to expand significantly. Its main applications include:
- **Butyl Rubber**: Used in tire inner tubes, medical stoppers, and sealing products. With China’s focus on radial tires, the demand for butyl rubber is expected to reach 200,000 tons by 2010 and 350,000 tons by 2015.
- **MMA (Methyl Methacrylate)**: A key monomer for PMMA and PVC processing aids. The market for MMA is growing rapidly, with estimated demand reaching 350,000 tons in 2010 and 550,000 tons in 2015.
- **Polyisobutylene**: Primarily used as a lubricant additive. Demand is projected to rise from 60,000 tons in 2010 to 100,000 tons by 2015.
- **Rubber Accelerators**: Compounds like NS and TBSI, derived from MTBE, are critical in green rubber chemistry and are becoming increasingly popular due to environmental regulations.
Other chemical applications, such as gasoline detergents, antioxidants, and intermediates like methallyl chloride and trimethylacetic acid, also show promising growth.
In conclusion, while MTBE’s use in gasoline faces some uncertainties, its role in chemical production is expanding. With China’s growing carbon 4 resources, the future outlook for MTBE remains positive, particularly in high-value chemical applications.