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With the rapid progress of urbanization in China, the continuous development of infrastructure construction and the acceleration of freight traffic have stimulated the market's demand for heavy trucks. To compete for this opportunity, domestic and foreign companies have come up with all kinds of tricks, and the domestic heavy truck market is welcome. An unprecedented great development has come.
From January to September 2010, China’s heavy trucks, including complete vehicles, non-integrated vehicles and semitrailer tractors, have sold 788,000 vehicles, an increase of 74.76% over the same period of 2009, and 23.91% higher than the 2009 sales volume of 636,000 vehicles. Some experts predict that the sales of heavy trucks will exceed one million in 2010. From the second half of 2009, the country’s 4 trillion yuan investment has begun to exert its influence on the economy. In 2010, many major projects began to be implemented, which led to the rapid growth of engineering dump truck demand.
It is understood that at present, China's large-scale heavy truck companies include FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Corporation, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Shaanxi Automobile Group, Beiqi Foton, etc., with annual production and sales scale of 100,000 to 200,000 vehicles. After years of experience, these heavy truck companies have formed a relatively long product line, covering low-end to medium-to-high-end heavy trucks. Beiqi Mercedes-Benz, SAIC Iveco Hongyan, Anhui Hualing and other companies are in the second echelon, with an annual production and sales scale of 10,000 to 50,000 vehicles. Zhejiang UFO, Sanhuan Special Purpose Vehicle, Xugong Automobile, Jinggong Zhenjiang, and New Earth Automotive are small companies with an annual production and sales scale of less than 10,000 units. The products are mainly low-end heavy trucks. Due to cost considerations, most of the heavy trucks are mostly simple in design and have a single function. With the increasingly fierce market competition, traditional heavy-duty truck companies are striving to improve technology and change the status quo.
In recent years, the rapid development of the heavy-duty truck market has also caused many car companies to take action, and some freshmen have begun to enter the heavy truck sector. At the beginning of this year, Yunnan Lifan Horse, with its fifth-largest tractor production and sales in China, introduced two series of heavy trucks for the first time and officially entered the heavy truck industry. At the Beijing Auto Show in April, a group of emerging heavy truck companies, including Chang'an Heavy Duty Trucks, Grand Canal Heavy Trucks, and Ji Rui United Trucks, made their debut. In addition, Yutong Bus is currently planning to launch a heavy truck program.
At present, the domestic mainstream heavy truck manufacturers such as FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. are booming in both production and sales, and are continuously seeking for scale expansion. For example, the production and sales of heavy trucks of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group has exceeded 160,000 units in the first three quarters of the year, an increase of more than 60% year-on-year. The annual production and sales volume is expected to exceed 190,000 units. China National Heavy Duty Truck has also successfully reorganized Chengdu Ace Car Company this year to establish a commercial vehicle base with Fujian Yongan Automobile Co., Ltd., and began to march into the medium and heavy truck and light truck fields.
Faced with the current status of the heavy truck market, some experts expressed some concern. Experts believe that the heavy truck market is somewhat false and prosperous. Although there are thousands of heavy-duty truck companies in China, only a few dozen companies have sold more than a thousand of them each year. Most of the companies are disastrously operating and some of them even have only a few sales. With the promulgation of the “Regulations for the Management of Commercial Vehicle Production Enterprises and Product Access,†the state will further standardize the entry barriers in this area. At the same time, it also clarifies the country’s requirements for the heavy truck industry, that is, encourages companies to independently research and develop and produce high-end heavy trucks. In this way, the transition and upgrading of heavy-duty truck products from low-end to high-end are realized. Experts said that due to the requirements of the "rules" for technology, those "low-grade, simple" heavy trucks are expected to gradually reduce or even eliminate.
The heavy-duty truck industry is also one of the industries with a high degree of correlation with investment in infrastructure construction. Experts believe that the introduction of real estate control policies this year will have a certain impact on engineering trucks. As one-third of China's GDP comes from the real estate industry, in the process of the formation of a huge bubble in China's real estate, engineering vehicles and logistics vehicles in the heavy-duty truck industry have experienced rapid development, but with the continuous deepening of real estate regulation and control in the next years, The impact on the heavy truck market is unpredictable.
Recently, the price of refined oil has soared again, especially with the tight supply of diesel oil in the economically developed areas on the southeastern coast of China, and it has emerged that owners need to wait in line for a whole day to add oil. Although the impact of the oil shortage on the community is multifaceted, the more direct impact is the increase in the transportation costs of the logistics industry, and the direct economic losses caused are still difficult to calculate. At the same time, the winter season is now approaching, and coal demand is entering the peak season. This is the best season for heavy trucks that transport coal on roads. From now until the first quarter of next year is a regular market season. The increase in road freight will inevitably drive the rapid growth of the road car market.
Since 2010, raw material prices have increased by an average of 10%. For heavy truck companies, the rise in raw material prices first brought cost pressures. Among the raw materials needed for vehicle production, steel accounts for a large proportion. The rise in steel prices is bound to increase production costs. At the same time, however, some slow-moving cars are still in the promotional price cuts.
According to experts, the sales growth curve of the heavy-duty truck market has been basically the same as that of the country's GDP growth rate. It is only slightly fluctuating. If the GDP growth rate is relatively high that year, the heavy-duty truck market sales growth will also be higher. . However, there are also special years and special policy events, and the impact on the heavy truck market is also dramatic. If the prices of raw materials for vehicles and oil prices continue to rise next year, the transportation costs of manufacturers and logistics industries will increase significantly, which will have a huge impact on the heavy truck market.
Some industry experts believe that this year's heavy truck market has advanced overdraft sales in 2011. According to the laws of the industry, in the last year of a five-year plan, the market will not be very good. Because the investment in fixed assets is basically completed, the overall investment has relatively declined. In this period, the country will strengthen macroeconomic control. However, this year as the last year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the overall market is rather better, different from previous years, so this year may overwhelm the market next year, especially tractors. The tractors that should have been sold in the second half of the year will not be sold in the second half of this year. This is mainly because the market overdraft in the first half of the year is too large. In addition, the current low profit of the logistics market may affect the tractor market next year.
However, some industry experts believe that in 2011, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will continue to remain high, making the demand for engineering heavy trucks continue to improve, and the demand for logistics heavy trucks and semitrailer tractors is expected to continue to improve. However, most people in the industry are not optimistic about market judgments next year. It is generally believed that the heavy truck market in 2011 may remain flat or slightly lower this year. Even if it grows, it will not grow too much. On the contrary, the possibility of a drop will be even greater.
According to statistics, in the first nine months of 2010, the sales volume of heavy trucks has approached 800,000. If the monthly sales volume is about 80,000 units in the next three months, the annual sales figures for heavy trucks will definitely exceed 1 million. According to the law of heavy truck market, the last two months of each year is the impulse period for heavy truck sales. Dealers must take profits and rebate, have to pressure inventory. Some big companies with national headings have to use up the vehicle purchase index at the end of the year, otherwise they will expire and they will not be approved for re-application of indicators in the coming year. The last two months coincided with the arrival of winter. The peak period of cargo transportation from the north to the south of coal and the South Grain Northward transport brought about an increase in the demand for trucks.
Based on the above circumstances, industry insiders believe that the heavy truck market in 2011 may not be better than in 2010, the market sales of next year is expected to hover around the level of 1.1 million vehicles.