“The business travel market and logistics market will be the key markets for the next generation of light passengers development; affected by the increase in the size of micro-subsidiaries, the commercialization of MPVs, and the lightening of large and medium-sized passenger cars, the living space for light passengers will be increasingly squeezed; Within the industry, the competition for the next generation of light passengers is still concentrated between the Japanese and European systems; the non-bearing body structure will still play an important role in the next generation of light passenger markets...” This is the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and several domestic industries Experts, and in-depth study of relevant companies, some predictions for future development of light passengers. On November 15, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the "Report on the Next-generation Light Bus Development". The report shows that in the future, the light passenger industry can be described as the “opportunity and challenge” coexistence. The economic situation, competitive environment and policy trends will jointly promote the “change” of the light passenger market.


Multiple needs, unique positioning


Create "new opportunities" for light passengers


2011 can be said to be a bumper year for the domestic light passenger industry. According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, a total of 265,857 vehicles were sold in the young passenger industry in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 11.91%, and the light passenger market maintained growth for three consecutive years. In this regard, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers believes that in recent years, the increase in urbanization rates in China, changes in intra-city and inter-city transportation patterns, changes in the mode of travel of urban and rural residents, and the requirements for the construction of urban amenity have combined effects on the restrictive regulations of vehicles used in the logistics industry. Next, the development environment of the light passenger industry has undergone major changes. Experts from the China Road Society Bus Division said that passenger cars will play an increasingly important role in achieving a truly seamless connection in a multimodal transport system that combines high-speed rail, aircraft and road passenger transport.


According to the simulation analysis of China’s economic development prospects from the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” to 2030 by the Development Research Center of the State Council, the potential for China’s economy to maintain relatively fast growth still exists in the medium and long term, and economic growth is expected during the “Twelfth Five Year Plan” period. The speed is expected to reach 7.9%, and the average annual growth rate in 2016-2020 is expected to remain around 7.0%. According to the “Twelve Five-Year Development Plan for Transportation and Transportation” issued by the Ministry of Transport, at the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the total length of China’s national highways will reach 108,000 kilometers, which will cover more than 90% of the urban population of more than 200,000 cities.


Experts of the China Road Society Bus Branch told reporters that as the country’s economy continues to grow, the industry status of light passenger vehicles is also rising.


Regulatory tightening competition intensifies


Proposing light passengers "new challenges"


Under the background of the “steady progress in the economy” of the Chinese economy, the demand for business travel and logistics has gradually increased, and the domestic light passenger market ushered in a rare opportunity. However, if this data is carefully studied, the proportion of light passenger sales in the total sales of passenger cars will not change much, and even there will be a downward trend. "The reason for this is mainly the result of products such as micro-subsidiary and Zhongke continuously breaking the boundaries of existing products and squeezing the original light passenger market from different directions." Deputy Director of the "Report" Task Force, China Automotive Industry Zhu Kongyuan, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the Association, said.


According to the old "China Automotive Classification Standard" (GB9417-89), light passengers are buses with "6" prefix and 3.5-7 meters in length. However, under the trend of widening and lengthening of some micro-passenger products, the captain has already exceeded 4 meters; the lightening trend of medium-sized passenger cars makes the size of the passengers continue to break through 7 meters; plus the continuous large-scale MPV products The multi-party extrusion has increased the pressure for the survival of the light passenger industry enterprises.


If the competition between products is a manifestation of the intensified competition in the light passenger sector, then the future changes in global energy and environment will pose even greater challenges to the domestic light passenger industry. In terms of vehicle emissions, in order to reduce the emission of light pollutants from low-light vehicles and improve air quality, the fifth stage emission standard for light vehicles formulated by the Ministry of Environmental Protection has publicly solicited opinions and will be formally introduced during the year.


According to the publicly solicited public opinion draft, the fifth stage emission standard for light vehicles will be formally implemented in 2016. In terms of fuel economy, the forthcoming "Limited Fuel Consumption Limit for Heavy Commercial Vehicles (Phase 1)" standard will impose higher requirements on the fuel consumption of light passengers with a maximum design mass exceeding 3,500 kg. According to the prediction of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the three-stage limit standard for light commercial vehicles will be released and implemented during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period.


“The Limits of Fuel Consumption for Light Commercial Vehicles” and the forthcoming “Limits for Fuel Consumption of Heavy Commercial Vehicles (Phase 1)” will impose higher requirements on the fuel economy of light passengers. The next generation of light passengers will need to apply more. Energy-saving technologies to meet the requirements of more stringent energy-saving technical regulations.” Zhu Kongyuan told reporters, “In addition, with the popularization of new automotive safety technologies and higher consumer demand for automotive safety technology, safety technology standards will continue to increase. Strict and light passenger safety technology will also be continuously improved, which will pose more challenges to the development of light passengers in the future."


The market is dominated by needs


Gave birth to the "new trend" of light passengers


After years of development, domestic light passengers have formed a product pattern dominated by Japanese and European light passengers. In recent years, European-based light passengers, mainly urban vehicles, have continued to increase their market share, challenging the traditional advantages of Japanese light passengers. The "Report" believes that with the improvement of economic development and the acceleration of urbanization, the requirements for urban vehicles will also be redefined. The maturity of technologies such as lightweighting, collision safety, pedestrian protection, and vibration and noise provide guarantees for urban vehicles to achieve higher standards; in the areas of high-end business reception, passenger transportation, and modern logistics, such as intelligence, personalization, and high efficiency, etc. It also puts forward higher requirements for the development of urban light passengers. According to forecast, in the next 5-10 years, the domestic market will occupy a medium-to-high-end market, and light competition among Japanese light passengers will occupy a medium-to-low-end market for a long time, and will be divided into cities and townships to form their own market competition environment. In terms of products, light passengers with a body length of 6 to 7 meters and a non-loaded body structure will develop further. “For the business traveller, apart from the concern about the comfort and business convenience of travel tools, the safety of travel tools has become more concerned. Light passengers using non-load-carrying bodies have assumed the main anti-deformation pressure due to independent frames. ,Reducing the body's resistance to deformation pressure, which will help improve the reliability and safety of the vehicle.” Zhu Kongyuan told reporters. In his opinion, this is an effective strategy adopted by light passenger manufacturers in response to micro-customer market attacks.


Mr. Zhou Liang, general manager of Nanjing Iveco Automotive Co., Ltd., said: “This report not only has strategic significance for the future development of the light passenger industry.” He told reporters, “Consumers have high requirements for safety, carrying and comfort. This also pointed out the direction for us to respond to the downsizing of our products, especially for the analysis of the advantages of non-loaded light passengers in the light passenger zone of 6-7 meters, which is in line with our judgment. On the basis of theory, we have also successfully researched and emerged in the fist product - Iveco PowerDaily, using leading air suspension and few leaf springs with high-tech configuration, positioning high-end business commuting and business reception market, to better Safety and comfort meet the challenges of the future light passenger market."


An expert from the “Report” project team stated: “The coexistence of opportunities and challenges tests the level of R&D and management of each light-off company. Fortunately, in the actual visits to companies, many light-off companies For example, Nanjing Iveco has identified the next-generation commercial light passenger product platform represented by Iveco PowerDaily, and Brilliance Jinbei has created the Golden Ocean Lion on the new H2 platform.In this context, the light passenger market It is expected to enter a new round of rapid growth."



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