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Incident Analysis The data for the first five months of 2008 indicate that the growth rate of demand inside and outside the machinery industry will slow down in the first half of 2008. The data for the first five months of 2008 show that the growth rate of demand inside and outside the machinery industry is fairly stable, but the development status of the sub-industry indicates that the demand inside and outside the machinery industry will increase in the future. The speed may be reduced. We expect that the growth rate of the output value of the machinery industry will be around 25%, and the growth rate of exports will be around 20%. The main reason for our judgment lies in: We have noticed that the growth rate of construction machinery that is most sensitive to the macroeconomic cycle has shown a significant decline from April to May; the growth rate of machine tool tools that are sensitive to the macroeconomic cycle has shown signs of slowing down; The growth rate of heavy mining machinery, which reflects the lagging economic cycle, began to level off. This structural performance of the sub-sector of the machinery industry is the performance of the machinery industry when the economy is in a downward cycle.
Coping strategies In view of this, we maintain the Neutral rating for the machinery industry; Neutral ratings for construction machinery in the sub-sector; Neutral for heavy mining machinery and machine tools; Neutral for electrical appliances due to macro regulation; Maintain holdings rating. Individual stocks mainly recommend Tianwei Change (600550), Pinggao Electric (600312) and Kunming Machine Tool (600806). For details, please refer to related stocks report.
I. Demand growth inside and outside the country in the first half of 2008 According to the data from the Federation of Machinery Industry, the cumulative sales value of the machinery industry in China was 3.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.35% year-on-year, and the growth rate was basically stable; The monthly export delivery value of the national machinery industry was 0.52 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.29% of the sales value for the same period, an increase of 25.21% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded slightly. We believe that the rebound in the growth of export delivery value of the machinery industry in May may be mainly affected by the “May 1st†holiday. This year, the May 1 Golden Week is cancelled for the first time this year, and the working days are much more than the same period of last year; and the recovery of sales value in May may be mainly affected by May. The impact of the rebound in domestic industrial production growth. On the whole, the machinery industry did not completely shake off the slowdown in demand growth both inside and outside China in May. We maintain the forecast of annual production growth of 25% and export growth of around 20%, as shown in Figure 1.
II. Prior to May 2008, the fastest growing construction machinery, heavy mining machinery and machine tools According to the data from the Federation of Machinery Industry, from January to May 2008, the sales growth rate of the 11 sub-sectors was still the fastest in construction machinery, The growth rate was 46.24%. In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of heavy-duty mines, machine tools, and basic components was all above 35%. The lowest growth rate was in cultural office equipment, which was a year-on-year increase of 10.25%, followed by instrumentation, which was a year-on-year increase of 25.27%. Figure II. The growth rate of various sub-sectors of the machinery industry reflects the current domestic industrial structure characteristics, that is, heavy industry development is significantly faster than light industry. As a result, the construction machinery, heavy mining machinery, and machine tools for the construction of heavy industry and construction services have experienced the highest growth rates. Happening.
According to the data from the Federation of Machinery Industry, from January to May of 2008, the sales value of the machinery industry in China increased by 30.35% year-on-year, and the export increased by 25.21% year-on-year. The growth rate was relatively stable. Among them, the output value of construction machinery, heavy mining machinery, and machine tools, which serve the domestic heavy industry and construction industry, was the highest; the export of construction machinery and internal combustion engines, which accounted for a lower proportion of sales, was the fastest. At the same time, the production value of construction machinery and machine tool tools showed a declining trend.