2010 was a year when the value of natural rubber was re-evaluated. Under the backdrop of ample liquidity in the world, the natural rubber market has experienced the bear market in 2008 and the bull market in 2009. The industry expects that in 2011, the price of natural rubber may have reached a new high, and the profit of the tire industry has been squeezed to a very low level.

Recently, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that from January to December 2010, China imported 1.68 million tons of natural rubber (including latex), an increase of 8.8%; imported synthetic rubber (including latex) 1,655,400 tons, an increase of 6.3%. Under the expectation of high raw material prices and limited demand, the profits of the tire industry have been squeezed so little that it is expected that the profitability of tire companies in 2011 is not optimistic.

"Difficult to find a solution" difficult to resolve

Analysts said that since 2002, China has become the world's largest natural rubber consumer and importer. Most of its supply comes from Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the three largest rubber suppliers in the world. The current situation is that more than 60% of China's natural rubber consumption depends on imports, and the booming development of the automobile and tire industries has stimulated the demand for natural rubber. From the stocks of stock exchanges, the inventory of natural rubber at the beginning of 2010 exceeded 150,000 tons, but the current inventory level is less than 70,000 tons, which is still relatively low.

Tizhi ​​Hai, a natural rubber analyst at the China Circulation Productivity Promotion Center, told reporters that natural rubber has excellent performance. Synthetic rubber is difficult to substitute for its position in the production of automobile tires in a short period of time. However, the widening gap in the global natural rubber is an indisputable fact. fact.

The Rubber Producing Countries Association said in its monthly statement that the price of natural rubber is apt to rise and fall with limited global supply. Due to the seasonal reduction in tapping, the tight supply of the global natural rubber market during the period from February to May 2011 may further deteriorate.

In addition, according to the forecast data released by the Rubber Machinery and Equipment Network, the economic recovery and tight supply in 2011 will cause a global supply gap of nearly 70,000 tons of natural rubber. It is expected that the average price of Hujiao in 2011 will be 35,000 yuan/ton; Supply and demand balance and macroeconomic data, it is expected that Hujiao high point will appear in the second quarter of 2011, the price may reach 50,000 yuan / ton during the period.

High costs forced the company to change

“Natural rubber prices are close to 40,000 yuan/ton, tire production costs have increased by nearly 50%, and corporate profits have been reduced to the lowest.” This was the China Rubber Association's emergency consultation meeting held in Beijing on January 13, 2011. Participants discussed. The most data. Xu Wenying, deputy secretary-general of the China Rubber Industry Association, said that although many companies have already raised tire prices several times, they still cannot offset the cost increase caused by raw material price increases. According to the statistics of China National Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch, from January to November 2010, the tire industry profits fell by 22% year-on-year, with a loss of 26%.

It is reported that the current price of natural rubber has hit a record high. At the same time, the profit margin of the tire industry has fallen to the lowest level in history, and tire production has fallen into a predicament of more start-ups and more losses. It is difficult to digest the influence of many unfavorable factors simply because tire companies adjust their business strategies. “The pressure of the company is indeed very high, and it has been losing for several months. Tianjiao is a price for a day.” Zhang Chao, deputy manager of Shandong Linglong Tyre Co., Ltd., told the reporter that there are already many small tire manufacturers in Shandong. Because natural rubber prices soared and closed down, "from the perspective of market stability, companies can only modify the price once a month, even if it does not keep up with the frequency of natural rubber prices."

Chen Qi, head of Jiangsu Jiatong Tire Co., also told reporters that he hopes the state will reduce import tariffs on natural rubber and expand natural rubber reserves to change the company's loss situation. Chen Qi said: "The rubber price is too high for the enterprise to bear. In the past six months, the tire price has also increased by 20%, but the raw material price has risen by 50%."

Enterprises hope that the state will expand the amount of natural rubber reserves. Tie Zhihai believes that even if the country throws away natural rubber, it will only temporarily ease the pressure on tire companies and cannot fundamentally solve the problem. China’s dependence on natural rubber is too high, and the overcapacity in the tire industry is quite serious. This situation cannot be avoided. He suggested that companies increase the technical content of tire products, try to save resources in production and focus on developing the tire retreading industry.

According to industry insiders, it is now a good time for the tire industry to make structural adjustments. To ease the cost pressure from the source, tire companies should speed up the pace and go abroad to grow natural rubber.

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